Last Updated on December 26, 2021 by Neelam Singh
Quick Take
Following the Tweets of Graham Medley, multiple social media users have interpreted the comments as his confession on the Covid-19 models formed to justify government policies. We fact-checked and found the claim to be False.
The Claim
In response to the Twitter chat between Graham Medley and Fraser Nelson on Covid-19 pandemic modelling scenarios a social media user posts, “SAGE modeller admits that data is skewed to suit the required outcomes.”
Another social media user writes, “The Chairman of the UK’s COVID modelling committee admitted that they exclusively model bad scenarios that aid pro-lockdown policy decisions. Wow”. The posts can be found here and here.
These comments were a retaliation in response to the Graham Medley posts. The chat can be found here.
Fact Check
Have government advisers skewed the Covid-19 pandemic data?
No. Graham Medley tweets have been misinterpreted completely. He wished to emphasize on the importance of policy while preparing a model as he believes there is no policy-agnostic modelling to assess scenarios.
Graham Medley informed that all Omicron scenarios are modelled, but they receive less attention “partly because there are no policy decisions to be made. We don’t know what the probability is of Omicron being less severe than Delta. So, we cannot say which scenario is more likely”.
Why is modelling necessary?
Models have addressed the early Covid-19 outbreak by suggesting travel restrictions and border closures. Graham Medley added, “Models are used to provide scientific evidence to inform decision-makers to help them choose between a range of options. They are not used to support particular choices, they are used to support the decision/choice.”
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